Just when things seemed like they were settling down in the offseason we got another bomb of an announcement. I have been working on my write up of the offseason as a whole and boy am I glad that I waited before posting it. This trade is huge news for both teams involved, and though I don’t think it has any sort of championship altering effects on the league, its still sending ripples.
Yesterday, Adrian Wojnarowski reported that Houston has traded Russell Westbrook for John Wall and a first round pick. That pick is a 2023 first round pick and is lottery protected.
This trade could be a net gain for both teams, but my initial reaction is that Washington benefits the most from this. Both of these players still have massive contracts with 3 years left. In some circles they were considered the least tradeable contracts in the league, and neither team does anything to really get out of them here. But I think Washington wins just because Westbrook has a lot less risk attached to him, and his addition should make them contenders for a playoff spot. He was All-NBA 3rd team last year, and adding an All-NBA player to your roster is almost always a good thing. Westbrook next to Beal on paper seems like it will work well, at least better than Harden and Westbrook did. The rest of the roster has good shooting and size, and should be able to compliment Westbrooks playing style better than Houston’s did. While I would have loved to see Wall playing again for this team and seeing what he and the rest of this roster could do together, Westbrook is more of a sure thing-and his MVP season was only 3 years ago. Wall hasn’t played since the 2018-2019 season, and coming off of an Achilles injury there is definitely risk there. This trade gives Washington a surefire upgrade and the chance to be a solid playoff team in the east. I expect them to finish around 7-8 as of now, but they could be even higher.
Speaking of that risk though, lets talk about what this means for Houston. Last year, the Westbrook-Harden Rockets flopped. They were a good team but they didn’t have a realistic chance of getting to the finals, and would have surprised if they even made it to the conference finals. There has been a ton of stuff coming out of the locker room in Houston, with rumors of almost every player there being unhappy. There was the rumor of Harden asking to be traded to the Net’s earlier in the offseason and Westbrook too was asking for a trade. Clearly they needed to make some changes. In my opinion they made the right move here by trading Westbrook and, as of now, trying to appease Harden and keep him on the roster. They changed a lot about their front office, letting both Daryl Morey and Mike D’Antoni go, which I think were necessary moves at this point. This may be their last chance to keep Harden and they need to change up a lot to get this roster in Championship contention.
Trading Harden is the worst case scenario. They’d need to blow up nearly the entire roster and rebuild from the ground up at that point. I think their best move is to regroup their roster around him, and try something new. Signing Christian Wood was a solid move this offseason and shows they are mostly abandoning the small ball experiment they tried last year. He could be a really good piece for the roster and adds a bit of youth. Bringing in Demarcus Cousins is a low risk, high reward move as well. Though I don’t think Boogie will ever be like his Sacramento self again, he could still have a few strong seasons left in him. It’s worth taking a flyer on. Bringing in Wall and trading Westbrook changes the culture and identity of the team a bit as well, and brings in a potential strong second option behind Harden.
If Wall can get back to being a 20-10 kind of guy, it’s still a downgrade from Westbrook, but the fit may be a bit better at least personality wise. Wojnarowski reported recently that “Harden had a preference of John Wall over Westbrook.” That may be the driving force behind this move on Houstons end, and shows that they really are in on keeping Harden. That’s what they are most concerned about with this move. The first round pick acquired with Wall is nice as well, but the main reason they do this trade is to keep Harden.
In a way its the same thing with the Wizards. They do not want to lose Bradley Beal. They make this trade to start winning now, and hopefully try to appease their star player. There have been rumors of Beal leaving Washington for a while now, and though I think they are unsubstantiated, where there’s smoke there is usually fire. He may not be looking to leave now, but a couple more losing seasons may change his mind.
I think this trade could be a positive for both teams depending on how Wall comes back from his injury and if they do manage to keep their star players. As of now though I think, and strictly from a basketball sense, Washington got better and Houston got a little worse.
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