The season has officially started, with some teams having already played their third game. But there is still time to make some predictions on how the rest of the season will turn out. I actually had these predictions ready to go prior to the season starting, but am only now getting them posted here. The Western Conference has a history of being hard to predict, and this season I imagine will be no different. There are arguably 12 or 13 teams that could be in contention for the playoffs this year and I think we’re in for an exciting finish at the end of the season where every game matters. That is usually the case out west.
1st Seed: Los Angeles Lakers
The defending champions are poised for another great season, as good if not better than last years. With Lebron James and Anthony Davis, that alone should get you in the top 3 or so teams in the west. But couple that with the strong roster moves they made this offseason in acquiring Marc Gasol, Dennis Schroeder, Motrezl Harrell, and a couple other solid players and the Lakers look to improve on what they did last year. I think they will likely cruise to the number 1 seed in the west, barring a lot of load management or injury of course.
2nd Seed: Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers will look to bounce back and make a statement this year after an early exit in the postseason last year. Being one game from the Western Conference finals and coming up short has to sting for this squad. Especially since they did so while being up 3-1. They made some roster moves that I think will really payoff, specifically adding Nicolas Batum, replacing Montrezl Harrell with Serge Ibaka and getting Luke Kennard to help with shooting off their bench. Their depth is solid, and they’ve got two really good star players that will only have more chemistry together this year. This year is really when the battle for LA begins.
3rd Seed: Utah Jazz
Seeing the Jazz this high might surprise some people. But it really shouldn’t. This year seems destined to be the year that Utah puts it all together. Bojan Bogdanovic is back from an injury that kept him out of the playoffs, and they’ve brought back Derrick Favors to bolster their bench unit. They also managed to extend Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert and Jordan Clarkson, so they are definitely confident in their team. Overall, Utah has now had time to have this roster gel, and have made to the moves to surround their two stars with enough shooting and talent that they have as good a shot as anyone in the conference on taking down the LA teams. If Donovan Mitchell plays even remotely as good as he did in the bubble last season, this team could end up shocking a lot of people and finishing really high on the standings.
4th Seed: Denver Nuggets
Denver is in a very good place right now. They have a superstar in Nikola Jokic, they have a good number 2 in Murray and they have a lot of exciting young talent in Michael Porter Jr and Bol Bol. They’ve also got a strong supporting cast of veterans and solid role players. Losing Grant could prove to really hurt this team defensively, but even with him gone they have a lot of the tools to get back to where they were last season and maybe even pass it. They’re relying on internal development. If MPJ can become even an average, or below average defender, that’d be such an overall improvement of where he was last year. If Bol Bol can prove to be useful for real NBA minutes that’d make them even more dangerous. But more so than anything, Denver needs Jamal Murray to prove that what he did in the bubble is here to stay. He needs to take that next step to being a consistent all-star level player and this team could go the distance.
5th Seed: Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks are only going to go as far as Luka Doncic can carry them. Luckily for them that should be pretty far. Luka looks like he will be the next player to run the league after Lebron, and even at his age he’s starting to put up an argument. I think if I had to bet on an MVP this season, I’d bet on Doncic. Besides him, the Mavericks also have Porzingis who could return to an all-star level himself once he’s back from injury. That’s a dangerous 1-2 punch. But outside of that, this Dallas roster isn’t super impressive. They’ve got some solid role-players in Josh Richardson, Maxi Kleber and Tim Hardaway Jr. But besides that, the Mavericks aren’t as deep as some of the other western conference contenders. Still, with Luka at the helm and Kristaps backing him up, this will be a dangerous team.
6th Seed: Houston Rockets
The Rockets have a chance of making this placement look silly. They have a talented roster that’s got decent depth and one of the top 5 or 6 players in the game. But there is so many question marks with this team going into the season that I couldn’t really put them any higher. First and foremost is Harden. He’s made it clear he wants out of Houston, so we’ll see how he ends up playing this season for them or if they even keep him at all. Outside of Harden, you have Wall and Cousins who are both coming off of ACL tears within the last couple years. They did pick up Christian Wood this offseason which I think will be a real impactful signing for them, and the rest of the roster still has a lot talent. But there are still a lot of questions about durability and chemistry with this team.
7th Seed: Portland Trailblazers
Portland got better this offseason. There is no denying that. Getting Derrick Jones Jr, and Robert Covington will bolster their wing depth. As well as Rodney Hood returning from injury. They will also have Jusuf Nurkic for the entire year this time around, which will definitely help. CJ, Dame and Carmelo Anthony will be able to carry the offense and keep up with most teams. Replacing Whiteside with Kanter is a slight downgrade, but theres no denying Kanter is the superior offensive player. Lillard won’t let this team miss the playoffs, but I don’t think the editions they made this year puts them into the western conference elite.
8th Seed: Phoenix Suns
This year is the year Phoenix and Devin Booker finally makes the playoffs. The addition of Chris Paul cannot be understated. He will help this young team immensely. Ricky Rubio did an amazing job for them last year, but he’s not Chris Paul. The addition of Jae Crowder should also not be overlooked. He is a strong defender and a solid 3 point shooter. But what will really help propel the Phoenix Suns past a lot of the other young upcoming teams in the west will be internal development. Deandre Ayton becoming a really good center and being available for the entire season will be huge. Devin Booker continuing to produce at an all-star level as he has for the past few years will also get them solidly over .500.
9th Seed: Golden State Warriors
Its very difficult to put the Warriors outside the top 8. But its more difficult for me to put them over anyone in the top 8 right now. Without Klay Thompson this year, the warriors just don’t have the firepower or depth to compete for one of the top spots in the western conference. Wiggins can put up numbers, and Oubre is a solid young player, but an aging Curry can only carry this team so far. He will have to have an MVP level season for this team to succeed. James Wiseman is a good pick and will come in and instantly be a starting level center, but he’ll need time to develop. Draymond Green has the chance to really show what he can do, but the Klay injury puts this team another year away from having a real shot in the west.
10th Seed: New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans are another team that could make me look dumb for having them so low. They’ve already got an All-Star in Brandon Ingram, and Zion doesn’t look far off from being an All-Star himself. They’ve got a good guard rotation with Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Eric Bledsoe and J.J Redick, and bringing in a really solid center in Steven Adams will definitely bolster the teams rebounding and defensive capabilities. There are question marks with this team though, and they are still really young. The talent is there for them to make the playoffs but they’ll need time to grow and gel. I think they’re still a year out from being a strong playoff threat.
11th Seed: Memphis Grizzlies
Having the Grizzlies down here at 11th shows just how competitive the west will be this year. I fully expect the last few games of the season to play a role in determining who makes and misses the playoffs. The Grizzlies almost made it last year, but Portland managed to take their spot right at the end of the bubble. This year, the Grizzlies look for internal growth for improvement. Ja should be even better than he was with a year of experience under his belt. They’re also looking for Jaren Jackson Jr. to be a bit better. The young duo hold the keys to this teams future this season, but even with their best efforts I’m not sure they’ll be able to take this team past a lot of their competition.
12th Seed: Minnesota Timberwolves
First let me say, I think any of the teams from 7 to here at 12 could finish in any of those spots at the end of the year and I wouldn’t be surprised. It just so happens I’m the least confident in the Timberwolves. Their roster is definitely a lot better than it was last year. Getting first overall pick Anthony Edwards alone will help their offense and maybe even their defense. But getting back Ricky Rubio and their young players developing more should make the Timberwolves much more competitive than they have been since the Jimmy Butler year. I could see this team making the playoffs…but I can just as easily see them sliding down the standings as we’ve seen time and again.
13th Seed: San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs will officially be entering rebuilding mode this year. At least, I think they will be. They’ve surprised us before. They will still be a competetive team with DeRozan and Aldridge, but their young guys just aren’t there yet and they’ve definitely lost a step. It feels weird having the Spurs this low but I think this is the first year since I’ve been alive I can confidently say the Spurs will not be in the playoff picture and will instead be in the lottery. Picking Devin Vassell in the draft is a good start on their retool/rebuild, but they’ve got a long way to go before they begin to play as well as the Spurs of old.
14th Seed: Sacramento Kings
When placing the Kings here I hesitated for a moment. But just a moment. The Kings have a lot of young talent but they have not been able to put it together just yet. Perhaps this is the year for it…but until they show me they can do it I have a hard time betting on the Kings. Fox is a stud and I really liked the Haliburton pick for them in the draft. Buddy Hield and Harrison Barnes are both able to score at a good rate. But this team lacks a true star, and until either Fox blossoms into that or someone else on the roster surprises, the Kings will struggle. Bagley will have this season to show what he’s fully capable of in Sacramento’s front court alongside Whiteside and hopefully he is able to show his potential.
15th Seed: Oklahoma City Thunder
Last season I didn’t think the Thunder would make the playoffs and they surprised me. This year I’m more confident they won’t. The Thunder decided to bottom out and go for a full rebuild this offseason, trading away Chris Paul and Steven Adams and Danilo Gallinari. You could argue those were 3 of OKC’s top 4 players last year. I expect them to take a significant step back as they rebuild this year, and should be well near the bottom of the conference and maybe even the league. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is definitely the player they are building around, and Luguentz Dort looked really impressive in the playoffs last year, so there is definitely talent here. But don’t expect another surprise playoff appearance.
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